(a mathematical approach)
House always wins (let’s change that).
Betting bookies have many tools to manipulate the gambler’s emotions. So, the first “to do” before becoming a pro better is to step emotions aside. You are not here to feel the thrill. You are here to make money.
Betting odds are configured with statistics and information.
Bookies (and their AI) can manage more data than anyone, but single betters have an small advantage in information that cannot be measured.
Let’s say it that way: you have more probability to win a bet on your team than in another (with the same betting odds).
Bookies also play with time and risk. They know you want to make a big amount of money as fast as possible. If you bet on teams you have not specific information or if you bet on high odds, you are losing that small advantage and you are just playing the lottery. Most probably you will lose.
Problem here comes because your team plays only once in a while (one or two times a week), and if you bet only in your team, and only in low odds (many of them you will win, but also many of them you will lose), you will never earn a living here.
The main concept in The Betting Method – Football Betting Pro Club is that users share their bets on their teams so other users can take profit of it.
But let’s put some numbers into that concept.
First number to consider is the Betting platform margin, that will work as a correction factor, as we’ll see later on.
Take a win or lose bet (who will win a tennis match, for exemple) at 50% probability. If the odds are 2, margin is 0. If the odds are 1,80, margin is 10%.
So, you should consider betting on the betting platform with lower margin.
Next indicator to consider is the Winning Ratio. Every user has a winning ratio, and to calculate it we must imagine that user always bets with the same odd.
Winning Ratio = Winning Bets / Total Bets * Bet Odd
So, if the average bet odd is 6, winning ratio is calculated WB/TB*6.
If we consider www.thebettingmethod.com we must include another correction factor, because Bet odds accepted are between 5 and 6 to 1. We call this BetPro Correction Factor, and is calculated as if a user always bets in odds 5 to 1 and wins 1 of 6 bets.
BetPro correction factor = 1/5*6 = 1,2
As told, Winning ratio can vary from 0 (you lose all your bets) to 6 (you win all your bets).
Which user proportion has this ratio? Or in other words: Can we determinate the probability of a user to have an specific WR?
Gaussian functions are often used to represent the probability density function of a normally distributed random variable with expected value μ = b and variance σ2 = c2.
This exemple function is calculated with a Standard Deviation (σ) = 0.3, which is quiet a conservative prediction, although accurate SD is to be observed in empirical environment.
Standard Deviation determinates the “width” of the Gaussian function.
In this function, no correction factors have been applied.
Let’s do that.
Applying the Betting Platform Margin
We’ll consider an average bookie margin = 10%, which is quiet similar to reality.
Applying this 10% margin will mean the “center” of the curve will be relocated to 0.9, instead of 1.
Applying the BetPro correction factor
ALL users with a WR > 1.2 will win more than lose.
There is this grey zone between 1 and 1.2 where user’s balance can be positive or negative depending on the bet odds used. We won’t consider that in our function model.
We won’t consider either the WR improvement consequence of betting only to your favourite teams. Some may say it may override the Betting platform margin. Others may say it increases Standard Deviation of the function (makes it thicker). As said, we won’t consider that.
This graphic shows the population distribution in a Gaussian function.
In our exemple μ = 0.9, σ = 0.3.
That means a 15.8% (13.6% + 2.1% + 0.1%) of the population (BetPro active members) will win more than lose in their bets.
To continue with the numeric exemple, we will only consider those members with a WR > 1.5. As we’ve seen, it’s the 2.1% of the total.
Bettin at user’s bets with WR>1.5 means, average, you will win 3 bets out of 12.
If bet odds are 5 to 1 (at least), means that, if you bet 10 units (€, $, £…) to every bet, you will win, average, at least (it can be more if odds are higher than 5 to 1) 30 units every 12 bets (you will get 3*50 = 150 and you will pay 12*10 = 120)
So, you can triple your starting capital in 12 bets.
We can make some other presets to continue our model.
BetPro Community Active users: 5.000
Users with WR > 1.5: 105
Average number of bets/week posted by Users WR > 1.5: 1.666
Bets/week WR > 1.5: 105 * 1.666 = 175
That’s 25 reliable bets / day.
From here, you decide which strategy you choose to bet. You must consider statistics are there to be broken, and a bad streak always can happen. Our recommendations are displayed in The Betting Method page. We suggest you to take a good look at it.
One last consideration.
If all BetPro Community Members take profit of the bets our highest rated members post, it’s fair they get some reward in exchange.
That’s the spirit of the contest. Not only a competition, but a recognition of the betting skills.